12th June 2020 (Updated 16th June 2020*) – It’s seeming unlikely that the US / Canadian border will open up again when the current closure agreement ends on the 21st June. Sources in the know are suggesting, though not confirming, that the agreement will be extended for another month, which will be the 3rd such extension.* In his daily media briefing yesterday, 15th June, Prime Minister Trudeau gave perhaps his strongest indication yet that the current border closure status quo will be extended again when he said: “There is broad consensus across the provinces that we need to continue to keep our current border measures in place.”

It does seem very likely though that in any further agreement some restrictions are likely to be lifted and freedom of movement will be enabled for some Canadian and US citizens in addition to the permitted commercial and essential crossings. Just this week the Canadian government starting allowing family members that had been cut off by the border closure to visit within Canada, albeit with restrictions.

Whilst COVID-19 cases are dropping significantly in most parts of Canada, Toronto has had a sharp increase in cases in the last 2 weeks, which is only showing signs of flattening in the last few days. Combine this with the fact that the last week has seen many record cases and deaths in some states in the US and a significant number of daily deaths in some bordering states e.g. Minnesota – 200 in the last week, there is huge Canadian reluctance to pull the trigger too soon on changing the border status quo.

Inevitably any kind of border closure extension will continue to hurt both economies and not least the Canadian tourism industry, of which nearly 2 million Canadians work in, directly or indirectly. Just this week Air Canada has been criticising the Canadian government for a disproportionate response to travel restrictions.